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Simple nomogram predicts life expectancy for prostate cancer
Monday, 29 November 1999 19:00 | 
| Radiology News - Radiology Articles |
A simple nomogram using age and comorbidity predicts ten-year life expectancy in prostate cancer patients who are considering radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy, according to a new report.
A simple nomogram using age and comorbidity predicts ten-year life expectancy in prostate cancer patients who are considering radical prostatectomy or radiotherapy, according to a new report.
Candidates for definitive therapy for prostate cancer should have a life expectancy of at least ten years, the authors suggest, but life expectancy estimation is difficult.
Dr. Pierre I. Karakiewicz from the University of Montreal and colleagues devised a tool for prediction of ten-year life expectancy after radical prostatectomy or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) in a large, population-based cohort of prostate cancer patients who did not receive any secondary treatment.
The overall ten-year survival probability was 81.1 per cent after radical prostatectomy and 30.4 per cent after EBRT, the authors report in the August 20th Journal of Clinical Oncology.
Each one-year increase in age was associated with a ten per cent increase in overall mortality during ten years of follow-up, and each one-unit increase in Charlson comorbidity index was associated with a 40 per cent increase in overall mortality. EBRT was associated with 6.6-fold higher mortality compared with radical prostatectomy.
The nomogram based on age and comorbidity demonstrated 84.3 per cent accuracy in predicting the individual probability of ten-year life expectancy after either radical prostatectomy or definitive EBRT, the researchers note.
"Our nomogram represents an accurate, user friendly, contemporary, and highly generalizable model for predicting ten-year life expectancy in candidates for definitive prostate cancer therapy," Dr. Karakiewicz and associates conclude. "It is simpler and more accurate than its alternatives.
"The impact of predictions for large cohorts can be identified based on suggested cutoffs," they add. "Conversely, individual predictions can be used for clinical counseling.
Candidates for definitive therapy for prostate cancer should have a life expectancy of at least ten years, the authors suggest, but life expectancy estimation is difficult.
Dr. Pierre I. Karakiewicz from the University of Montreal and colleagues devised a tool for prediction of ten-year life expectancy after radical prostatectomy or external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) in a large, population-based cohort of prostate cancer patients who did not receive any secondary treatment.
The overall ten-year survival probability was 81.1 per cent after radical prostatectomy and 30.4 per cent after EBRT, the authors report in the August 20th Journal of Clinical Oncology.
Each one-year increase in age was associated with a ten per cent increase in overall mortality during ten years of follow-up, and each one-unit increase in Charlson comorbidity index was associated with a 40 per cent increase in overall mortality. EBRT was associated with 6.6-fold higher mortality compared with radical prostatectomy.
The nomogram based on age and comorbidity demonstrated 84.3 per cent accuracy in predicting the individual probability of ten-year life expectancy after either radical prostatectomy or definitive EBRT, the researchers note.
"Our nomogram represents an accurate, user friendly, contemporary, and highly generalizable model for predicting ten-year life expectancy in candidates for definitive prostate cancer therapy," Dr. Karakiewicz and associates conclude. "It is simpler and more accurate than its alternatives.
"The impact of predictions for large cohorts can be identified based on suggested cutoffs," they add. "Conversely, individual predictions can be used for clinical counseling.
